Cameroon’s public investment plunges 74% in early 2026

The pace of public investment budget execution in Cameroon experienced a significant downturn during the first quarter of 2026, marking a particularly difficult start to the fiscal year. By the end of March, ordered investment expenditures amounted to only 45 billion FCFA, a stark contrast to the 175.5 billion FCFA recorded at the same point a year prior. This represents an absolute decline of 130.5 billion FCFA, or a substantial 74.4% contraction year-on-year. Consequently, the execution rate for investment credits outlined in the 2026 finance law plummeted to 2.5%, an unusually low figure even for a historically slow first quarter.

PROBMIS IA: a technical transition hampering the spending chain

The Ministry of Finance (Minfi) attributes a significant portion of this slowdown to the migration of budget management operations to a new IT platform, known as PROBMIS IA, which became operational at the start of the fiscal year. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (DPBMT) 2027-2029, prepared ahead of the Budget Orientation Debate, explicitly acknowledges that technical constraints arising from this transition have hindered the processing of operations. Ordinary expenditures have fared only marginally better, with an execution rate of 14.7% by the end of March.

The disruption has been particularly severe for investments financed through domestic resources, where the execution rate stands at a mere 0.3%. Investments backed by external resources performed slightly better at 5.2%, though this figure also remains modest. Essentially, the spending chain became severely congested precisely when government departments were expected to initiate their initial commitments for the year. The Minfi has taken responsibility for a slower-than-usual start.

External financing: a sharp decline in disbursements

Compounding the technical friction is a less favorable environment for resource mobilization. Loans and grants effectively secured by the end of March totaled only 137.5 billion FCFA, down from 327.6 billion FCFA recorded a year earlier. This represents a substantial drop of 190.1 billion FCFA, or a 58% year-on-year decrease. This shortfall affects both project-specific loans and grants, as well as general budget support.

In detail, project loans attracted only 39.4 billion FCFA against a quarterly forecast of 206.7 billion FCFA, resulting in a realization rate of just 19%. Grants reached a mere 0.1 billion FCFA, far below the anticipated 18.5 billion FCFA, while no budget support disbursements were registered during the period. This combination of factors inevitably impacts investments funded by external resources, whose timelines remain dependent on the disbursement pace of donors.

Overall, the budgetary resources mobilized by the Cameroonian state totaled 1,331.4 billion FCFA by the end of March, against an annual target of 8,683.9 billion FCFA. The realization rate reached 15.3%, compared to 19.6% a year earlier. On the expenditure side, total ordered spending amounted to 1,547.1 billion FCFA, a 2.9% decrease from the 1,593.2 billion FCFA recorded the previous year. Current expenditures, excluding interest, also declined by 80.5 billion FCFA, settling at 566.1 billion FCFA.

Tangible risk for SND30’s flagship projects

The first quarter is typically a period of low investment credit utilization, largely due to public procurement lead times and the gradual ramp-up of construction projects. However, the magnitude of the decline observed this year significantly surpasses usual patterns. Should such a delay persist, it would place considerable strain on the timeline for infrastructure projects outlined in the National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30).

Sectors heavily reliant on public contracts find themselves on the front lines. Building and public works, construction materials, engineering, and transport industries are closely tied to the state’s capacity to order equipment expenditures within planned schedules. A sustained underperformance in budget execution would inevitably impact the cash flow of awarded companies and the overall dynamism of domestic economic activity.

The immediate challenge for Cameroonian authorities now involves swiftly resolving the technical frictions within PROBMIS IA and accelerating the mobilization of external financing. This dual capacity for adjustment is crucial for catching up on the accumulated delays of the past three months and achieving the 2026 objectives.