Us considers expanding military strikes in Mali amid growing jihadist threat

The administration of former US President Donald Trump is currently evaluating the possibility of launching military strikes against the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda-affiliated group operating in Mali. This consideration comes nearly four years after France’s withdrawal from the country following a decade-long intervention.

According to reports, no final decision has been made, and discussions within the administration are ongoing. Sebastian Gorka, a counterterrorism advisor at the National Security Council, is reportedly among the strongest advocates for military action. However, other officials remain skeptical about the potential impact of such an operation. If approved, these strikes would mark the eighth country targeted by US military actions during Trump’s second term.

US military strike discussions in Mali raise security concerns in the Sahel region

The White House has yet to confirm whether strikes are being planned. A senior administration official noted that Washington is actively encouraging North and West African nations to bolster their counterterrorism capabilities by acquiring US-made equipment and services. The official described terrorism in the Sahel as a « multinational challenge ».

The JNIM has grown into one of the most formidable armed groups in West Africa. Operating primarily from Mali, it has expanded its reach into several coastal nations across the region. Observers highlight that the group’s influence has surged in recent years, coinciding with the deterioration of security conditions in the Sahel.

Potential risks of military intervention in Mali

Analysts familiar with the Sahel warn that a US-led military campaign could backfire. Corinne Dufka, an independent Sahel expert, cautioned that eliminating JNIM leaders might not only fail to weaken the group but could also undermine efforts to deradicalize and demobilize its members. « Striking without a comprehensive strategy risks turning the fight against extremism into a perpetual cycle of violence, » she stated.

Some military analysts argue that additional strikes may not significantly alter the conflict’s dynamics on the ground. They point to France’s decade-long military presence in Mali, followed by five years of Russian involvement, neither of which succeeded in curbing the expansion of jihadist groups.

Another concern is the potential for unintended consequences, such as strengthening rival armed factions in the region. The Islamic State in the Sahel, a direct competitor of JNIM, could exploit any power vacuum left by a weakened JNIM.

There are also growing apprehensions about escalating tensions with Russian forces operating in Mali. Russia has offered military support to several African nations, including Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and the Central African Republic. However, US officials have expressed skepticism about Russia’s counterterrorism effectiveness, with one stating, « African nations should take note of Russia’s mixed results in combating terrorism. »