The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export campaign, with nearly 1 million tons already sold under contracts for the 2026-27 harvest, may face disruption due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, industry experts and agricultural commodity traders warn.
To manage stock levels, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC) in Abidjan has increased its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per ton above the futures price, according to sector sources. The move reflects the growing demand and tightening market expected as the new season begins on September 1st.
« We have already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tons for the upcoming campaign, but we’ve chosen to slow the pace and proceed with caution, » a CCC source shared, emphasizing the proactive approach in managing export volumes.
Trading firms anticipate exports of 1.1 to 1.2 million tons, citing the higher premium as a natural market response. « The market conditions allow for a stronger negotiating position. The Council doesn’t need to lower the premium to secure contracts, » explained a senior executive at a cocoa trading company.
However, this momentum could be derailed by El Niño, which is projected to trigger drought conditions in major cocoa-producing nations, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Such a climate shift would likely disrupt production cycles and supply chains.
Beyond weather risks, industry leaders highlight another pressing concern: the aging cocoa plantations in Côte d’Ivoire and the rising costs of fertilizers and phytosanitary products. « I don’t see El Niño as the primary threat to production. The real challenge lies in the shortage of fertilizers and plant protection supplies, » stressed the director of an Abidjan-based export firm.
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