Morocco 2060: a demographic shift with urban growth and aging population

Morocco’s population to reach 43 million by 2060

The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has released its latest demographic projections for Morocco, covering the period from 2024 to 2060. These projections are based on various scenarios examining potential changes in fertility rates, mortality, and migration patterns.

Slower growth, urban expansion

Under the medium growth scenario, Morocco’s population is expected to grow from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million by 2060—a 17.8% increase over 36 years. This translates to an average annual addition of 182,000 inhabitants. The population growth rate, currently at 0.7% in 2024, is projected to gradually decline, nearing zero by 2060, signaling a shift toward demographic stagnation after decades of steady growth.

Urban areas will continue to expand, with nearly 32.5 million people expected to live in cities by 2060—approximately three-quarters of the country’s total population. In contrast, rural populations will shrink to around 10.8 million, reflecting ongoing rural-to-urban migration. The HCP warns that this urban expansion will intensify challenges related to housing, infrastructure, and social services, emphasizing the need for targeted public policies to mitigate territorial imbalances.

Fewer children, shifting education needs

The declining fertility rate will significantly reduce the number of young people in the coming decades. The preschool population (ages 4–5) is projected to drop by 23.8%, from 1.25 million in 2024 to 960,000 in 2060. Similarly, primary school-aged children (6–11 years) will decrease by 27%, from 4.16 million to 3.04 million. The first cycle of middle school (12–14 years) will see a 22.9% decline, while high school-aged youth (15–17 years) will decrease by 11.4%.

These demographic shifts present an opportunity for education policy reforms. With fewer students to accommodate, resources previously allocated to expanding classroom capacity can now be redirected toward improving teaching quality, enhancing curricula, and strengthening pedagogical support.

Working-age population grows unevenly

The working-age population (15–59 years) is expected to increase from 22.08 million in 2024 to 24.96 million in 2060, a rise of 13.1%. However, this growth will be unevenly distributed. Urban areas, driven by rural exodus, will see a 34.4% increase, from 14.2 million to 19.1 million. Meanwhile, rural working-age populations will decline by 25.4%, from 7.9 million to 5.9 million.

The HCP highlights that this urban concentration could place additional pressure on labor markets, particularly as cities absorb a workforce migrating from rural areas. Young adults aged 18–24, the primary entrants into the job market, will see a slight national decline of 3.1%, though urban areas will experience an 11.3% increase, while rural regions face a 28.3% drop.

Aging population: a demographic transformation

The most striking demographic shift will be the rapid aging of the population. By 2060, individuals aged 60 and older will surge from 5 million to 10.9 million, representing 25.2% of the total population—nearly double the current share. This group’s growth rate will average 2.2% annually, with urban areas seeing a 2.5-fold increase (from 3.18 million to 8.06 million) compared to a 1.6-fold rise in rural areas (from 1.81 million to 2.83 million).

The population aged 70 and older will triple, rising from 2.06 million in 2024 to 6.3 million in 2060. Urban areas will see a 256% increase in this age group, while rural regions will experience a more modest growth of 130%. The HCP attributes this trend to the decline in fertility since 1975, reduced mortality rates, and internal migration patterns.

Policy challenges on the horizon

As Morocco’s population ages, the dependency ratio—the number of dependents (both young and elderly) per working-age individual—will rise, posing significant challenges. These include financing pensions, expanding healthcare for the elderly, and preserving intergenerational family structures, which are increasingly strained by urbanization and rural depopulation.

The HCP stresses that population aging is an irreversible structural trend that demands proactive policy responses. From education and employment to social protection and urban planning, Morocco must act now to adapt to a future where growth slows but aging accelerates.