AES at two years: grand pronouncements meet Mali’s security challenges

On the occasion of the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) second anniversary, observed on July 6, 2026, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the current president of the Confederation, delivered a notably assertive address. The Burkinabè head of state presented an assessment he deemed largely positive, outlining ambitious goals for the future of the organization, which comprises Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Yet, beneath the determined tone of his speech, significant questions persist regarding the Confederation’s actual capacity to translate its commitments into tangible outcomes.

The AES president declared that the Confederation has achieved substantial progress in political, diplomatic, and military cooperation. He highlighted enhanced coordination in counter-terrorism efforts, the fortification of shared institutions, and a gradual move towards economic integration.

However, this assertion was not accompanied by any specific data or precise indicators that would allow for an objective evaluation of these claimed advancements. Sahelian populations continue to grapple with formidable challenges, including persistent insecurity across numerous regions, rampant inflation, difficulties in accessing essential social services, and a prevailing economic slowdown.

The discourse also underscored a strong commitment to building economic sovereignty through industrialization, the local processing of natural resources, ensuring food and energy security, and facilitating the free movement of people and goods.

These objectives, while commendable, are highly ambitious. Their realization will necessitate considerable investments, appropriate infrastructure, and enduring stability—factors that remain elusive as the three member nations contend with significant budgetary constraints and a precarious security environment.

A notable point from Captain Traoré’s address was his attribution of some of the AES’s difficulties to an “economic and media war,” campaigns of disinformation, and external pressures he characterized as imperialist and neocolonial.

This interpretation aligns with the official stance adopted by AES authorities since their disengagement from several Western partners. Nevertheless, it does not resonate universally among observers, who suggest that the Confederation’s challenges also stem from internal factors, including governance issues, economic pressures, and the unrelenting wave of terrorist attacks.

The speech also aimed to reassure, affirming that the AES is not directed against any specific people or organization, while confirming ongoing discussions with ECOWAS to redefine their future relationship.

This openness to dialogue marks a contrast with the tensions that have characterized relations between the two regional bodies in recent years, signaling a potential desire to safeguard certain regional achievements, particularly the principle of free movement.

Ultimately, Ibrahim Traoré’s message appears to be more of a political declaration designed to bolster cohesion around the AES project than a comprehensive review of its actual performance.

Two years post-inception, the Confederation projects a clear vision and a unifying narrative centered on sovereignty and integration. Yet, the true measure of success will lie in tangible results: enhanced security, job creation, economic development, and a marked improvement in the living conditions of its populations.

However, the resolute rhetoric of Ibrahim Traoré starkly contrasts with a security reality that remains profoundly troubling. While the Confederation’s president champions progress in the fight against terrorism, recent assaults in Mali serve as a stark reminder that the threat persists. On July 4, 2026, multiple camps and positions belonging to the Malian Armed Forces were targeted in coordinated attacks across locations such as Gao, Aguelhok, Anéfis, Sévaré, and Kéniéroba. These incidents underscore the enduring capability of armed groups to strike simultaneously on various fronts.

These events highlight the limitations of the security mechanisms thus far implemented by the AES. Despite reinforced military cooperation and joint operations frequently showcased by authorities, the organization continues to struggle in permanently reversing the dynamic of insecurity within the Sahelian region. Beyond pronouncements on sovereignty and unity, citizens now demand concrete outcomes: a significant reduction in attacks, the restoration of stability, and a palpable improvement in their daily security.