Africa’s democratic crossroads: Between military coups and popular resistance

Africa is witnessing another military takeover. Since 2020 alone, the continent has seen nearly ten such events. The latest occurred in Guinea-Bissau, a deeply impoverished Portuguese-speaking nation (ranked 174th out of 193 on the UN’s development index) situated in a more affluent Francophone region. A faction of officers seized control on Wednesday, declaring they would govern the country for a “transitional period of one year”—a familiar refrain.

The military has blocked the release of the presidential election results from November 23rd. The deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, has reportedly sought refuge in Congo-Brazzaville.

The main opposition figure, Fernando Dias da Costa, asserts that he won the recent election. This mirrors the claim made by Embalo, who was seeking a second term. Competing claims to victory are a common feature in such political crises.

Currently in hiding to evade capture, Dias da Costa told RFI in a phone interview that the coup was a setup orchestrated by military allies of the outgoing president to avoid conceding defeat. “I am the victor,” he stated. “When Embalo realized he couldn’t win, he decided, ‘If I can’t win, I’ll hand power to the military.’ […] This coup is a sham.”

A poll conducted in mid-November suggested Dias da Costa had the support of over 60% of voters, compared to around half that for Embalo, with other candidates far behind. The incumbent was on track for a loss. The fact that the coup was bloodless, its leaders are known associates of the president with no public grievances against him, and Embalo quickly reappeared abroad all lend credibility to the theory of a staged event.

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This recent wave of putsches arguably began in Mali, with takeovers in August 2020 and again in the spring of 2021. A group of soldiers, resentful of the French military presence supporting the government against Islamist forces, initiated a mutiny. A few months later, Colonel Goïta ousted the very civilian president he had put in place, marking two coups by the same individual in the same country in less than a year.

Four Francophone nations in West Africa—Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger—have been under the control of military juntas for the past three to five years. Three of these juntas overthrew elected governments and expelled French forces, who were sometimes replaced by opportunistic Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group, now rebranded as the Africa Corps. The Faso current affairs in these nations, especially in Burkina Faso, are a major focus for independent Burkina journalism and the international press. All are contending with jihadist rebellions.

In Mali, one of these rebellions is now on the verge of seizing power. Outside the capital, Bamako, the country is increasingly resembling an Islamic caliphate where veils are mandatory and women are oppressed. Over the last 15 years, Islamist groups affiliated with the two major hubs of violent extremism, al-Qaïda and the Islamic State, have flourished in the Sahel. French troops temporarily slowed their advance, but the groups have consistently returned. After ousting the “cursed French,” the nations are left with the plague of Islamism and the cholera of dictatorship.

Further east lies Chad, where Idris Déby’s son, also named Idris Déby, seized power with military backing following his father’s violent death in 2021.

In Gabon, the fraudulent re-election of President Ali Bongo in the summer of 2023 sparked a crisis that culminated in a coup. However, this action was aimed at removing a family dictatorship—the Bongo dynasty—that had ruled since the 1960s. Yet, General Brice Oligui Nguema, who was initially hailed by the public, has since held a plebiscite and appears determined to remain in power.

Finally, in Madagascar, young “Generation Z” protesters took to the streets to denounce food shortages and authoritarian rule. They successfully drove out President Andry Rajoelina, who fled on October 12th. The military stepped in to fill the power vacuum, also to initial public celebration. The outcome remains to be seen.

We must also acknowledge the long-serving “dinosaurs” who have dominated their countries for decades: Teodoro Obiang has led Equatorial Guinea since 1979; Paul Biya has been in charge of Cameroon since 1984; and Yoweri Museveni has ruled Uganda since 1986. In these nations, voting is mere political theater. The situation is similar in Rwanda, where the formidable Paul Kagame, who leverages the memory of a genocide while having blood on his own hands, was re-elected last year with 99% of the vote.

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This paints a grim picture, but it requires nuance. The continent is home to 54 sovereign nations. A recent study on the state of democracy in Africa, led by Tiziana Corda of the Milan-based Istituto Studi di politica internazionale and titled Eppure, resiste (And yet, it resists), highlights a different reality. It notes that 2024 has seen an unprecedented number of free, multi-party elections in Africa, leading to genuine transfers of power.

There are countries where the popular vote has held leaders accountable, such as Sénégal, Botswana, Cape Verde, and Ghana. These are pluralistic nations that experience peaceful alternations of power, with a free press and robust civil societies. There is also South Africa, where the African National Congress (ANC) has lost its majority and is now compelled to form a coalition government.

In response to the new wave of coups, the African Union remains a significant voice of condemnation, backed by influential members like South Africa and Nigeria. Despite their own substantial internal challenges, these nations continue to elect and remove their governments through the ballot box and advocate against dictatorship.

Africa’s youth—with 70% of the population under 25—are organizing citizen movements, demonstrating a clear desire to shape their own futures and challenging the arrogance and intimidation of corrupt or inept leaders. This stands in stark contrast to the West, where growing disillusionment with politics, rising voter abstention, and the struggles of liberal democracies are leading some—from Trump to Orbán—to flirt with authoritarian “solutions.”