What began as a security sweep in Bissau has turned into the moment that could define Guinea-Bissau’s political future. In the capital, the military junta is carrying out a sweeping disarmament campaign, searching containers and homes for weapons allegedly linked to armed elements tied to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. The operation comes just weeks before the presidential election set for 6 December, as Embaló, exiled in Morocco, insists he will return and run. The junta has so far refused to let him back, citing security concerns.
Bissau’s streets become a hunt for hidden weapons
Security forces are combing through several neighbourhoods of Bissau, looking for concealed weapons and ammunition. Containers and residential buildings are being inspected as part of a campaign aimed at disarming groups deemed capable of destabilising the capital.
The military authorities say they want to bring under control any weapons circulating outside official structures. This operation is unfolding in a country where the army has for decades played a central role in political crises, and where coups have repeatedly derailed democratic processes.
According to available information, some of the weapons being sought are attributed to elements linked to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. It is a politically explosive accusation, one that will need to be supported by evidence establishing exactly where the weapons came from and who was holding them.
Embaló’s bid to return and run for office
Behind these security operations lies a major political deadline: the presidential election scheduled for 6 December 2026. After the coup that ousted him in November 2025, Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been living in exile in Morocco.
Yet the former president has announced his intention to return to Guinea-Bissau and seek the highest office again. In late September, he declared he would be a candidate in the presidential election.
His return was initially set for 4 October. But the military hierarchy decided to block it. The junta claims the security conditions needed for his return are not in place, invoking the protection of public order and social stability.
Embaló, for his part, maintains his determination to take part in the vote and is asking that his candidacy be examined by judicial authorities in an impartial and independent manner.
A candidacy that unsettles the military transition
The confrontation between the former president and the new authorities is no longer limited to the question of his return. It could now play out directly on the electoral field.
The junta has committed to holding elections meant to restore civilian rule. The presidential and legislative elections are officially set for 6 December.
But the Embaló case puts the military in a delicate position. How can they organise an election meant to mark the end of the transition while preventing the former president they overthrew from returning to campaign?
For now, the authorities have officially justified his return ban on security grounds. It would therefore be premature to speak of a candidacy legally rejected by the junta. However, his physical return to the country is indeed blocked by the military authorities, which concretely undermines his ability to campaign on the ground.
Weapons as both a security and political issue
It is in this context that the seizure operations take on an added dimension. By searching for weapons potentially linked to networks close to the former regime, the junta says it wants to prevent any threat to public safety.
But these operations come at the precise moment when political rivalry around the presidential election is intensifying. The question will therefore be whether the disarmament is purely a security measure or whether it will also have consequences for the political balance of power before the vote.
The military authorities will notably have to demonstrate that the searches and seizures are based on transparent procedures and are not being used to sideline certain political opponents.
A transition under close watch
The junta already had a new Constitution adopted in August following a referendum strongly contested by part of the opposition and civil society. The new text notably strengthens presidential powers.
In this climate, the 6 December presidential election represents a crucial moment for the country’s institutional future. Embaló’s possible return, his candidacy, and the conditions under which other contenders can campaign will be closely scrutinised.
In Bissau, the military continues to search, seize and disarm. But behind the inspected containers and the weapons being sought, a broader battle is now taking shape: the battle for control of the transition and for the conditions under which Guinea-Bissau will — or will not — return to civilian rule.
With two months to go before the vote, the standoff between the junta and Umaro Sissoco Embaló is only just beginning.