Persistent deadlock in eastern RDC one year after peace agreement

The conflict between Kinshasa’s military and M23 rebels has intensified recently, leaving the eastern region of the République démocratique du Congo (RDC) in a state of stagnation despite previous diplomatic efforts.

The eastern provinces of the RDC, which have endured three decades of instability, are witnessing a sharp rise in hostilities. This latest wave follows the 2021 return of the M23, an armed movement that the United Nations identifies as receiving military backing from Rwanda. The situation is further complicated by an ongoing Ebola outbreak in the area.

Diplomatic initiatives gained momentum in early 2025 following a high-level meeting between President Félix Tshisekedi and President Paul Kagame. This encounter led to the start of talks in Doha, Qatar, where the Congolese government engaged with the Alliance fleuve Congo—the political wing of the M23.

Under the leadership of the United States, further negotiations culminated in a formal peace accord signed exactly one year ago. This agreement between Kigali and Kinshasa was finalized in Washington, witnessed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and top diplomats from both African nations.

However, the region remains trapped in a stalemate. Observations from political experts, including Bob Kabamba of the Université de Liège, suggest that the situation has reached a “statu quo.” The rebel forces maintain their grip on captured territories, while both the Congolese military and the M23 continue to engage in skirmishes and violate the established ceasefire.

Furthermore, reports indicate that the M23 is actively bolstering its ranks through new recruitment. This ongoing mobilization suggests that the rebellion currently holds a strategic advantage on the ground. This balance of power is expected to dictate which side can impose its political agenda in future discussions.