Can Nigeria’s military campaign end the kidnapping economy in the north?

Can Nigeria’s military campaign end the kidnapping economy in the north? That is the urgent question hanging over the country after armed men seized at least 87 people — most of them women — in two separate raids across Niger and Zamfara states within 48 hours. The abductions expose a stark dilemma for President Bola Tinubu’s government: its security forces are claiming record operational successes, yet rural communities remain exposed to mass kidnappings that have become a lucrative criminal enterprise.

Two raids, one weekend, dozens of captives

The first assault unfolded on Saturday in the Mariga area of Niger State. Gunmen stormed a farming zone where residents were harvesting groundnuts. At least 47 farmers, many of them women, were seized, according to local accounts and a security report prepared for humanitarian organisations.

The attackers reportedly arrived on roughly 50 motorcycles before scattering in multiple directions. Local information suggests the captives may be held in the Ma’undu forest. At the time the reports emerged, no ransom demand had been communicated to the families.

The following day, Sunday, a second raid struck neighbouring Zamfara State. Forty women were reportedly abducted in Yargada, within the Gusau district, according to a security report compiled for the United Nations. Nearby villages — including Yargada, Maikogo and Magama Mairake — were also attacked. Homes and vehicles were set ablaze.

The true toll could be higher. Residents interviewed on the ground spoke of more than 50 women and children taken across several villages. Those figures are difficult to verify independently because the affected areas are remote and deeply insecure.

Bandits: a threat distinct from jihadist groups

The attacks are attributed to armed gangs commonly known in Nigeria as “bandits.” They are distinct in origin from jihadist organisations such as Boko Haram or the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), though the lines between organised crime, banditry and jihadist insurgency can sometimes blur.

Across north-west and central Nigeria, these groups have for years carried out kidnappings for ransom, cattle rustling and raids on villages. They use vast forested areas as hideouts and operational bases. Authorities struggle to control these rural territories, which often lie far from major urban centres.

In Zamfara State, residents said Sunday’s attacks may have been reprisals after several gang members were killed by local militias. That account remains a local testimony and has not been independently established.

Kidnapping as a criminal economy

Beyond the violence, abductions have become a genuine revenue stream for armed groups. According to SBM Intelligence data, some 7.78 billion nairas — roughly 5.8 million dollars — were paid in ransoms between July 2025 and June 2026. That amount is more than triple the figure recorded during the previous period.

The same report estimates 7,825 people were abducted during that period, a 66 percent rise year on year. These figures convey the scale of the phenomenon, even though they rely on data collected from various sources and do not necessarily constitute an exhaustive count.

The situation is all the more alarming because kidnappings do not only target farmers or travellers. Schoolchildren, families and entire village populations are regularly taken. In May 2026, more than 80 children went missing after attacks on schools in Borno and Oyo states.

Government steps up military operations

In response, President Bola Tinubu’s government says it has intensified its fight against terrorist groups, bandits and kidnapping networks.

The Nigerian army is now running multiple operations simultaneously on different fronts. In the North-East, Operation Hadin Kai is primarily dedicated to combating Boko Haram and ISWAP. In the North-West, Operation FANSAN YAMMA targets armed groups responsible for numerous attacks and kidnappings in states such as Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Sokoto. Other operations are underway in the centre of the country.

Authorities highlight a strategy combining ground operations, airstrikes, intelligence, arrests and rescue missions. According to the federal Ministry of Information, Nigerian forces have stepped up operations against bandit and kidnapper networks in Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Niger, Kaduna and several other regions.

Army figures illustrate the scale of the offensive. For July and August 2026, Defence Headquarters says 7,062 operations were conducted nationwide. The military claims to have neutralised 1,487 terrorists and insurgents, arrested 354 suspects and freed 777 kidnapped people. It also says it recovered nearly a thousand firearms. These data come from military authorities and cannot all be independently verified.

In the North-West, the army announced in late September the rescue of 14 kidnapped people during an operation in Kaduna and Katsina states. Authorities also say they recovered weapons and intercepted suspected members of terrorist networks.

Results that have yet to stop the abductions

Despite these operations, the mounting kidnappings show the problem remains deeply entrenched. Days before the latest attacks, residents of Niger State had protested to demand the release of hundreds of people abducted in coordinated August raids. Local estimates put the number of captives at nearly 700, a figure authorities had not confirmed.

The government’s challenge is therefore twofold: weakening armed groups while preventing them from regrouping in hard-to-reach rural areas. Security forces must also dismantle the logistical networks, arms traffickers and financial circuits that allow criminal groups to fund their operations.

The latest abductions in Niger and Zamfara states thus recall a persistent reality: military pressure yields occasional results, including arrests and hostage rescues, but it has not yet ended the kidnapping economy.

For rural populations, the threat remains daily. Tending a field, going to market or crossing a forest area can still expose residents to abduction. And as long as armed groups retain the ability to move, hide and demand ransoms, security operations will need to be accompanied by a sustained effort in intelligence, community protection and territorial control.

The 87 abductions reported this weekend are thus less an isolated episode than a fresh signal of Nigeria’s difficulty in durably restoring security in parts of the north.

By Marguerite Ndongo — Political and Security Analyst