A Promise Unfulfilled
The vision was one of a “second independence” for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Expelling the French military and severing ties with the West was supposed to usher in a new era of self-determination. Four years after the first military takeovers, the populist slogans have collided with a devastating reality: dependency has merely shifted to a new partner, insecurity is rampant, and national economies are suffocating.
Just four years ago, the public squares of Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey were electric with anti-French sentiment. The forced departures of ambassadors and soldiers from Operation Barkhane were hailed as monumental victories. The captains and generals who seized power, buoyed by the promise of a complete national overhaul, claimed that restored sovereignty would miraculously solve the terrorism crisis. By 2026, that honeymoon period has decisively ended. The performance of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) points to a systemic collapse that state propaganda is finding increasingly difficult to conceal.
The Security Mirage: A Russian Partnership’s Boomerang Effect
The primary justification for the military coups was the perceived failure of France to defeat jihadist movements. However, the chosen remedy has proven far more damaging than the original problem. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), the governments in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy.
On the ground, terrorist organizations like JNIM and EIGS have never been stronger. They now lay siege to strategic cities and sever critical supply lines. More alarmingly, the human toll is staggering. Independent organizations report a sharp increase in atrocities against civilians during joint operations. Instead of being protected, the people of the Sahel are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of their new security partners, leading to historically high numbers of internally displaced persons.
Diplomatic Isolation: An Institutional Retreat
To divert attention from domestic failures, the leaders of the AES have pursued a policy of constant rupture. Their dramatic withdrawal from ECOWAS cut the three nations off from their natural economic allies. More recently, their collective departure from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the new restrictions on UN agencies are completing the region’s transformation into a diplomatic gray zone.
This institutional flight serves primarily to shield the ruling regimes from any external scrutiny of their human rights records or their adherence to democratic transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are indefinitely postponed, turning what were meant to be temporary transitions into entrenched military dictatorships.
Economic Decline and Social Regression
The economic picture is equally bleak. The rhetoric of monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency is crumbling against the hard reality of economic data. Regional isolation has caused a staggering rise in the cost of living and essential goods. Local businesses are being stifled by indirect sanctions, a decline in foreign investment, and chronic power outages that paralyze cities like Bamako and Ouagadougou.
While national budgets are bled dry to finance the war effort and pay for the services of Russian mercenaries—often compensated with mining concessions—basic social services are collapsing. Thousands of schools remain closed, and the healthcare system is on life support. National resources are being funneled into military apparatuses rather than invested in human development.
A Change of Patrons, Not a Liberation
Four years after the great divorce from Paris, the assessment is bitter. The Sahel is not safer, more prosperous, or more independent. By pushing out an imperfect but predictable Western partner, the AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russian power with purely geopolitical motives. The promised “second independence” has devolved into a tragic economic and security regression, where the sovereignty proclaimed from the top serves only to mask the suffocation of the people below.
